The Finger on Ukraine’s Trigger
What Merz Just Confirmed — And What Russia Will Never Unsee
Presented by The Ministry of Absolute Truth™
Dispatch No. 06-2025-24
Issued: 26 May 2025
Classification: Escalation Acknowledgement Directive
Subject: The Range Has Been Lifted: Chancellor Merz, NATO Consensus, and the Velocity of Denial
INTRODUCTION: THE WORD THAT WENT FURTHER THAN THE MISSILE
On May 24th, 2025, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz issued a statement that detonated more than news cycles. According to Merz, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States have officially removed all range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine.
No caveats. No footnotes. Just unrestricted permission for long-range warfare.
The result? Ukraine is now armed with tools designed not only to repel, but to reach — across borders, across red lines, and into the realm of strategic ambiguity.
SECTION I: FROM DEFENSE TO DISTANCE — THE POLICY SHIFT
For three years, the Western coalition maintained a plausible pretense: “We arm Ukraine for defense. Not for provocation.”
That pretense has officially been decommissioned.
Who Said What?
Merz (Germany): “There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine.”
UK: Storm Shadow missiles used for cross-border strikes.1
France: SCALP-EG cleared for use against Russian targets launching attacks.2
USA: Authorization granted for Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike inside Russia.3
No denials have followed. Only the sound of alignment.
And in Washington, the contradictions are now presidential:
President Trump, in office for just over 100 days, continues to speak of peace with Russia, after promising to end the war “in 24 hours” and calling Putin “easier to deal with than Zelenskyy.” He insists America must no longer be the world’s policeman.
Yet under his leadership, the United States has approved expanded military aid packages to Ukraine, lifted strike restrictions, and greenlit long-range missile use into Russian territory.
The United States is withdrawing from negotiations while accelerating the war — and calling it restraint.
SECTION II: ESCALATION WITHOUT ADMISSION
Officially, this isn’t an escalation. It’s a “necessary adjustment.” An “evolution in posture.”
In reality, it’s a transition from restraint to resolve. From plausible deniability to open-ended engagement.
Strategic Shifts:
Ukraine is now a long-range power projection platform, backed by NATO arsenals.
Strikes inside Russia can now be framed as “legitimate preemptive defense.”
NATO retains the illusion of non-involvement by outsourcing the trigger.
This is how empires escalate without accountability.
🛰️ The Message Intended:
The intended message to Moscow is clear: Ukraine is not alone, and there is no sanctuary for your war-making infrastructure. NATO aims to project unity, deterrence, and resolve — to show that long-range impunity is no longer a Russian privilege.
📡 The Message Received:
But the message likely to be heard in Moscow is not deterrence. It is provocation, encirclement, and existential threat.
The Kremlin will not read this as discipline. It will read it as delegated aggression under a Western flag.
And once the message has been heard that way, it cannot be unheard.
SECTION III: MOSCOW’S LINE IN THE ASHES
Should Ukraine strike Moscow, the consequences would detonate across more than a skyline.
Russian Responses Could Include:
Massive retaliatory strikes across Ukrainian critical infrastructure
Full battlefield mobilization, with suspended rules of engagement
Targeting of NATO logistics and supply hubs
Deployment of hypersonic systems like Oreshnik, Russia’s Mach 10-capable IRBM
Nuclear posturing, including possible tests or redeployments to Belarus
A strike on Moscow with Western arms would not be seen as a Ukrainian act.
It would be interpreted as NATO’s fingerprints on Russia’s front door after a break-in.
SECTION IV: ORESHNIK — THE ANSWER THAT SCREAMS WITHOUT SPEAKING
The Oreshnik missile was born for this moment.
Mach 10+ velocity
Mobile-launch capable
Nuclear or conventional payloads
Regionally escalatory without immediate global ignition
Russia does not need to target Warsaw, Berlin, or London.
It only needs to level Lvov, darken Kiev, and remind the world that parity is not peace.
The Oreshnik will be the message.
It is not meant to win.
It is meant to reset the rules with speed and silence.
SECTION V: WILL THIS ISOLATE RUSSIA?
Short answer: No.
Longer answer: It already hasn’t.
Russia is not globally isolated. Over 75% of the world’s population lives in countries that continue trade, diplomacy, or military cooperation with Russia.
China, India, Brazil, Iran, UAE, and most of Africa and Latin America are not aligned with NATO sanctions.
Only the West believes the West is the world.
Should Russia escalate in response to Ukrainian cross-border attacks, it may face condemnation in Brussels.
But in Beijing? Silence.
In Delhi? Caution.
In much of the Global South? Disinterest.
The memory of Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yugoslavia remains sharper than any missile trajectory.
CONCLUSION: VELOCITY OF DENIAL
We are no longer talking about ranges.
We are talking about consequences.
The range has been lifted.
The gloves are off.
The West escalates through delegation.
And Russia prepares to reply at Mach 10.
The fuse has been lit.
Now we count in kilometers per second.
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More German bloviating. Their handful of Taurus missiles will have zero outcome on the war, and the cretinous nazi stooge, Mertz will see that Germans pay a price for it.
Engaging and astute breakdown, Kevin.
I would add that Trump's push for peace was both legitimate and the right move 100%. Had the Dems got back into power, we may already be in WW3. However, Putin and Zelenskiy seem to be so deep inside a war mentality that both have hindered Trump far more than helped him. He is not the sort of person whose character is well suited to the rigours of lengthy conflict resolution. Neither seem to have taken sufficient account of this and recognised how good the conditions were for de-escalation under Trump.
Have been writing about all this for years now and had high hopes for some form of resolution this year under Trump, alas that seems to be looking less likely now.
Now we look primed for renewed escalation.