More German bloviating. Their handful of Taurus missiles will have zero outcome on the war, and the cretinous nazi stooge, Mertz will see that Germans pay a price for it.
I would add that Trump's push for peace was both legitimate and the right move 100%. Had the Dems got back into power, we may already be in WW3. However, Putin and Zelenskiy seem to be so deep inside a war mentality that both have hindered Trump far more than helped him. He is not the sort of person whose character is well suited to the rigours of lengthy conflict resolution. Neither seem to have taken sufficient account of this and recognised how good the conditions were for de-escalation under Trump.
Have been writing about all this for years now and had high hopes for some form of resolution this year under Trump, alas that seems to be looking less likely now.
Putin isn't the slightest bit interested in de-escalating. Neither does he give a shit what Trump says, because Trump will be gone soon enough. Putin will continue to de-militarize Ukraine, in detail, until it's de-fanged and de-nazified, as promised.
This is what Putin has been saying since 2022...demilitarization and de-nazification is the goal. NOT taking territory beyond the Russian-identifying oblasts. You haven't been listening to him.
He's been saying loads of things for a long time. Way before 2022.
The issues are pretty clear and have been talked about for a long time.
- No NATO in Ukraine.
- Ukraine as a fully-unaligned state.
- Protection and support for the east and Crimea.
The de-Nazification of the U Gov is often talked about and used as a good way to sell their cause, but it is not the primary issue and never was. To really achieve it, R would need to take Kiev. You think that's what they're aiming towards? You think that's likely? In Putin's 25 years in power he has been extremely loath to embark on such ventures when the odds are stacked against him. He's aware of his country's limits as he is of its interests.
War is also messy. Dynamics shift, priorities and possibilities change. This is all the more reason why Trump did the right thing in pushing for peace, albeit it as not at all worked so far.
Russia never intended to take Kiev, no, that's western propaganda. And true, Putin was not speaking of Ukronazis in 2008 because they came out of the weeds in 2014, post-Maidan coup, as a political entity backing the government and undermining Minsk.
See the excellent Events In Ukraine Substack for some fascinating breakdowns of Ukrainian and Russian neo-nazi convergence and oversight by the SBU.
I'll watch, but these sorts of predictions are just silly. If you're wrong, which you will be, you lose nothing. If you're right, you look like some inspired soothsayer. None of us have anything other than some vague notion of what world politics will look like in 3 years.
Very well structured, written, presented article and is spot on, more or less. Although the Oreshnik isn't an unknown quantity, there is information about it from other sources such as Ted Postol.
Sorry - I like Daniel Davis, but he's guessing. Nobody but the Russian government and military know their actual build capabilities. So it is an unknown quantity, outside of "somebody says." I deal in facts, not speculation (unless I indicate I'm speculating).
More German bloviating. Their handful of Taurus missiles will have zero outcome on the war, and the cretinous nazi stooge, Mertz will see that Germans pay a price for it.
Engaging and astute breakdown, Kevin.
I would add that Trump's push for peace was both legitimate and the right move 100%. Had the Dems got back into power, we may already be in WW3. However, Putin and Zelenskiy seem to be so deep inside a war mentality that both have hindered Trump far more than helped him. He is not the sort of person whose character is well suited to the rigours of lengthy conflict resolution. Neither seem to have taken sufficient account of this and recognised how good the conditions were for de-escalation under Trump.
Have been writing about all this for years now and had high hopes for some form of resolution this year under Trump, alas that seems to be looking less likely now.
Now we look primed for renewed escalation.
Putin isn't the slightest bit interested in de-escalating. Neither does he give a shit what Trump says, because Trump will be gone soon enough. Putin will continue to de-militarize Ukraine, in detail, until it's de-fanged and de-nazified, as promised.
Nah. He's generally a pragmatist; this is not the way pragmatists operate. What you describe is some kind of lunatic ideologue. That's not Putin.
A lot can happen in 3 years. Trump will be around for long enough.
This is what Putin has been saying since 2022...demilitarization and de-nazification is the goal. NOT taking territory beyond the Russian-identifying oblasts. You haven't been listening to him.
He's been saying loads of things for a long time. Way before 2022.
The issues are pretty clear and have been talked about for a long time.
- No NATO in Ukraine.
- Ukraine as a fully-unaligned state.
- Protection and support for the east and Crimea.
The de-Nazification of the U Gov is often talked about and used as a good way to sell their cause, but it is not the primary issue and never was. To really achieve it, R would need to take Kiev. You think that's what they're aiming towards? You think that's likely? In Putin's 25 years in power he has been extremely loath to embark on such ventures when the odds are stacked against him. He's aware of his country's limits as he is of its interests.
War is also messy. Dynamics shift, priorities and possibilities change. This is all the more reason why Trump did the right thing in pushing for peace, albeit it as not at all worked so far.
Russia never intended to take Kiev, no, that's western propaganda. And true, Putin was not speaking of Ukronazis in 2008 because they came out of the weeds in 2014, post-Maidan coup, as a political entity backing the government and undermining Minsk.
See the excellent Events In Ukraine Substack for some fascinating breakdowns of Ukrainian and Russian neo-nazi convergence and oversight by the SBU.
I never said they did. I simply said 'way before 2022'. I know all this anyway mate. Been watching it unfold and writing about it for years.
Trump will be dead before his term ends, watch and see.
I'll watch, but these sorts of predictions are just silly. If you're wrong, which you will be, you lose nothing. If you're right, you look like some inspired soothsayer. None of us have anything other than some vague notion of what world politics will look like in 3 years.
Literally listened about that on Коммерсантъ ФМ a couple of hours ago!... A huge games changer!
Very well structured, written, presented article and is spot on, more or less. Although the Oreshnik isn't an unknown quantity, there is information about it from other sources such as Ted Postol.
https://www.youtube.com/live/kKS7OYZoVdE
Sorry - I like Daniel Davis, but he's guessing. Nobody but the Russian government and military know their actual build capabilities. So it is an unknown quantity, outside of "somebody says." I deal in facts, not speculation (unless I indicate I'm speculating).